China, Russia, and Ukraine: October 2024

Russian Diplomatic Cover for Beijing: In an October 3 interview, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed support for China on issues such as Taiwan and criticized U.S. actions in the region, accusing the United States of escalating tensions. In an article in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta, his criticism was accompanied by a proposal for a new Eurasian security framework. He also commended China’s stance on the war in Ukraine, stating that both Russia and China aim to address the underlying issues Russia claims are the source of the conflict. 

China and Russia were accused of blocking of blocking an October 12 joint statement by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) due to disagreement over the South China Sea. The disagreement centers around Beijing’s territorial claims in the region, which have been a source of tension with other ASEAN members. 

Military Talks: According to Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Russian and Chinese military officials held “substantive” talks on Tuesday, October 15, addressing increased cooperation on global issues and efforts to counter U.S. influence in Asia. The meeting took place as China threatened to increase military actions near Taiwan, which drew U.S. condemnation. 

Collaboration at New Institutions: At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad, Pakistan, on October 16, China and Russia announced plans to deepen cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, and food security. According to the Russian News Agency TASS, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized stronger economic ties and joint projects, such as new transport corridors, “despite unprecedented external pressure.” Members of the SCO discussed cooperation in economic relations, security, climate change, and more. They also expressed support for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. 

The SCO criticized protectionist trade policies and unilateral sanctions in a joint statement following a meeting in Islamabad. The United States, and soon the EU, has raised tariffs on products such as Chinese electric vehicles and steel, prompting China to respond similarly. The SCO also denounced sanctions against Iran and Russia, which have deterred smaller nations from trading with them, though China and India continue to buy their energy. 

Li called for closer cooperation with Mongolia and Russia during a meeting at the SCO summit. China and Mongolia have both hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin recently. By doing so, the latter disregarded its obligation to the International Criminal Court by not arresting Putin. Mongolia is a key part of Russia’s plan to build a major natural gas pipeline to China. However, while Mongolia engages with China and Russia, it is also pursuing ties with the United States, which has pledged investment in its mining and heavy industry. 

At the BRICS—the bloc of emerging economies including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others—summit on October 22, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted the growing cooperation between their countries. Putin called Xi a “dear friend,” and Xi praised the ever-growing partnership, claiming that it contributes to global stability. 

During the summit, China has endorsed Russia’s proposal for a payment system among BRICS to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and counter sanctions. At the recent BRICS summit, leaders discussed launching an “independent cross-border settlement and depository infrastructure, BRICS Clear," which would utilize national currencies for cross-border transactions. 

Chinese Automobiles in Russia: Chinese automaker Chery is now manufacturing cars in Russian factories that were previously occupied by Western manufacturers who exited the market following sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Brands like Chery, Geely, and Haval are rapidly filling the gap in Russia’s auto market, with Chinese automakers accounting for more than half of vehicle sales in Russia as of November 2023; prior to the war, that figure was less than 10 percent. 

Beijing-Moscow Trade: Looking back at September, China’s exports to Russia rose by 15.7 percent from the year before, marking the fastest growth in nine months, driven by new economic cooperation agreements. China’s imports from Russia fell by 9.2 percent over the past year, in part due to payment processing issues. Recent agreements between the two countries in areas such as investment and transportation highlight growing bilateral ties. Overall, trade between China and Russia increased by 2.7 percent during the first nine months of 2024, reaching 1.28 trillion yuan ($180.3 billion). 

Joint Drills at Sea: China’s coast guard entered the Arctic Sea for the first time on October 2 to conduct joint patrols with Russia. The patrols are part of Russia’s strategy to expand its oil and gas exports to China, while China seeks to reduce reliance on the Strait of Malacca. Those joint operations build on earlier collaborations in the Pacific, demonstrating the countries’ increasing military and economic alignment in strategic regions. 

In mid-October, Russian and Chinese warships held joint anti-submarine and air-defense drills in the northwestern Pacific Ocean as part of a larger set of military exercises, according to the Russian navy. Those drills followed recent exercises, including Northern/Interaction-2024 in the Sea of Japan (often referred to as the East Sea) and Sea of Okhotsk. 

Election Interference: On October 7, U.S. intelligence officials warned that foreign efforts to undermine American democracy will persist after Election Day, with adversaries focused on pushing people to doubt the election’s integrity. Iran and Russia hope to exploit the potential for a close presidential race, and China is interested in hurting election chances for candidates who actively support Taiwan. Those influence campaigns, often disguised as coming from Americans, seek to deepen divisions and cast doubt on the election’s legitimacy. On October 23, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center released a report saying that China, Iran, and Russia have intensified their efforts to influence the outcome of the election. Russia is targeting the Kamala Harris–Tim Walz campaign; one tool they are using is AI-generated deepfakes, though overall those deepfakes are not getting massive engagement. China is focusing on down-ballot candidates and Congress members who they believe are anti-China. 

Ukraine: Chinese and Russian companies are partnering to create long-range attack drones for use in Ukraine. In response, the United States has issued new sanctions against two Chinese companies, one Russian company, and a Russian individual involved in drone development and delivery. Unlike earlier sanctions, which focused on dual-use goods, the latest measures directly target the “joint design, production, and delivery of weaponry.” Although evidence suggests that, as of now, China is not providing lethal support, NATO has long considered it a significant supporter of Russia’s military efforts. 

China has introduced new regulations to increase “control capabilities” of exports with potential civilian or military use. Those changes are meant to enhance the “transparency and standardization of export control policies” by implementing a permit system and a restricted-goods list, requiring exporters to declare the final users and the purpose of the items. That regulatory move follows U.S. claims that China is indirectly aiding Russia’s military in Ukraine through dual-use technology such as microelectronics. China, however, denies supplying weapons and insists its trade with Russia is legitimate. 

North Korea’s troop support for Russia in Ukraine is creating complex challenges for China. China, which seeks to present itself as a stabilizing player, faces difficulty reconciling that support with its stance on peace and non-escalation. North Korea’s military partnership with Russia could encourage it to assume a more aggressive posture toward Japan and South Korea, potentially limiting China’s influence over North Korea. 

At the BRICS summit, Xi reiterated China’s call for ending military escalation in Ukraine. He emphasized a responsible approach, while highlighting China’s position of nonintervention. Xi’s comments align with China’s broader diplomatic stance, which claims to seek stability but makes sure it does not directly oppose Russia. However, in reality, it has long been a close Russian ally, supporting it diplomatically and being an invaluable trade partner.